Bettor's guide: understand and make the most of Skyhook Picks

Why it may interest you

Every night, bookmakers post lines on NBA players, for example "over 38.5 points + rebounds + assists". Betting on gut feeling leaves you without a reference point: what matters over time is not guessing, but spotting bets whose odds are more generous than the estimated probability of the outcome. That is what is called value.

Every day, Skyhook Picks compares a statistical projection of each player (his recent averages, his minutes played, whether he played the day before) with the bookmaker's line. It keeps only the gaps whose estimated expected return is at least 5%, ranks them, and gives for each one the recommended stake and the odds below which you should no longer play.

What it is not: neither a tip nor a certainty. A bet with positive estimated value can lose, and the estimate can be wrong: the model does not know about last-minute injuries or the opponent. The history, at the bottom of the home page and open without an account, shows every settled result, won or lost.

How to read a pick: the terms explained

• Player and game: the targeted player, his team, the game and its start time. You bet on this player's performance in this game, not on his team's result.
• Bookmaker (or operator): the betting site where you place your stake. It sets the lines and the odds, which can differ from one operator to another.
• PRA: Points + Rebounds + Assists, a player's three statistics added together over a game. A player who scores 25 points, grabs 8 rebounds and makes 7 assists totals 40 PRA. For you, it is a single number that sums up his output in the game.
• Line ("book line" on the cards): the threshold set by the bookmaker, for example 38.5 PRA. It is the bar to clear: with 38.5, a player at 39 PRA clears it, a player at 38 PRA does not. The ".5" rules out a tie.
• OVER: the bet that the player will do more than the line. "OVER 38.5 PRA" wins if the player totals 39 PRA or more. Skyhook Picks currently offers OVER bets.
• Odds: what the bet pays. At odds of 1.90, a stake of 10 returns 19 if you win (a gain of 9, your stake included in the 19) and you lose the 10 otherwise.
• Model: Skyhook Picks' statistical program. From a player's latest games (his recent averages, his minutes played, the rest between games), it estimates how many PRA he will probably make. It is not an expert's opinion: it is a numerical estimate, and it can be wrong.
• Projection ("Model" on the cards): the total PRA the model estimates for the player in this game. Compare it with the line: the more the projection exceeds the line, the more favorable an OVER is.
• Estimated probability: the chance, according to the model, that the player goes over the line. 57% means he would go over it about 57 times out of 100 in similar situations.
• EV+ (expected value): the estimated average gain per unit staked if you placed a very large number of bets like this one. +8% means an average gain of 0.08 per unit staked, over time. It is not your chance of winning this bet: a bet with a high EV+ can perfectly well lose. The history's "Average EV+" is the average of these estimates at publication.
• Bankroll: the amount you set aside for your bets and accept to lose, for example 500. It is the base used to compute your stakes.
• Recommended stake: the share of your bankroll to stake on this bet, as a percentage. It is higher when the estimated edge is larger, and capped at 5%. With a bankroll of 500 and a recommended stake of 2.3%, you stake 11.50.
• Minimum odds: the lowest odds at which the bet keeps its value. If the bookmaker offers less, do not play.
• Free or reserved pick: one pick is offered to every visitor; the others are reserved for subscribers.
• Win rate (history): the share of settled picks that were won. On its own it does not tell the whole story: winning 55% at odds of 1.70 pays less than winning 50% at odds of 2.10.
• ROI (flat stake): the return if you had staked the same amount on every pick. +5% means a gain of 5 for 100 staked in total; -5% means a loss of 5.
• Bets tracked: the number of settled picks included in the history. The larger it is, the more meaningful the percentages.
• Void: a bet that counts neither as won nor as lost (for example if the player does not play); it is usually refunded by the bookmaker.

Fictional example: the model projects 40.1 PRA against a line of 38.5; the estimated probability of going over the line is 57%; at odds of 1.90, the EV+ is +8.3%, the recommended stake 2.3% of the bankroll (11.50 on a bankroll of 500) and the minimum odds 1.75.

Making the most of it

1. Set your bankroll: a dedicated amount that you can lose without consequences, kept apart from your everyday budget.
2. Stake the recommended percentage of that bankroll, never more. By staking more, you leave the risk management on which the calculation relies.
3. Respect the line and the minimum odds. Picks are generally calculated around noon Paris time, and the line may move before you bet. On an "over", a lower line is more favorable and a higher line less so: if the odds are below the minimum odds, pass.
4. Check injuries and line-ups before betting: the model does not know them. An uncertain or absent player invalidates the pick.
5. Think in series: even with an estimated edge, losing streaks are normal. Judge over dozens or hundreds of bets, with the results of the history, not over one evening.
6. Never try to make up for a loss: do not raise your stakes after a losing streak.
7. Keep your own record (date, line, odds, stake, result) and compare it with the history.
8. Bet only with a licensed operator in your jurisdiction and set deposit limits.
9. Play for fun, and stop if it stops being fun.

When to check the picks

Today's picks are generally published around noon Paris time, before games played overnight Paris time. Subscribers also receive them by e-mail. If no player reaches the threshold, there is no pick that day. Results are settled the next morning and added to the history.

Today's free pick is visible on the home page. See also the Responsible gambling page.

Skyhook Picks provides statistical analyses: no result is guaranteed and past results do not predict future results. Prohibited for minors (18+). Gambling involves risk (debt, isolation, addiction). Help: National Problem Gambling Helpline, 1-800-GAMBLER.